Call me crazy too, but I think Red Green and Black are fine. If you look at it hard irl--there are not exact projections.
I don't even like being able to uncover the exact digit let alone a more specified range of improvement.
Potential is an educated guess at best. (Moneyball Billy Beane).
How many NBA picks who went ahead of lower picks end up being worse.
Bob Knight and Coach K participated in a study trying to ID 13 YOS who would end up playing HS basketball. They correctly chose 25%.
Different I know as 13 YOS aren't grown men (are 17YOs), but some of the same principles apply